FXUS61 KAKQ 040907
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
407 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS
QUICKLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL 
REACH THE LOW/MID 50S ON THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE MID/UPR 50S
ELSEWHERE. AS THE LOW HEADS EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER.
RAIN FUNNELING EASTWARD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY POPS 60-70 AS FAR EAST AS A NORTH-SOUTH
LINE FROM ESSEX COUNTY TO WAKEFIELD TO AHOSKIE NC THIS AFTERNOON...
TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS 20 OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...VIRGINIA 
BEACH...AND THE OUTER BANKS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA. HAVE
GONE WITH 90-100 POPS FOR MOST AREAS. BEST LIFT AND OMEGA PROGGED
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC WHERE HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE.
CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID. LOWS
FROM THE UPR 30S NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. EXPECT A GOOD SOAKING WITH TOTAL QPF FROM ONE THIRD INCH
ACROSS LWR MD ERN SHORE UPWARDS TO AROUND 1 INCH ALONG AND SOUTH
OF VA/NC BORDER.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT ABOUT LINGERING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING STEADIEST PRECIP OFFSHORE SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL OFF THE COAST. NOT QUITE
READY TO BITE ON ALL PRECIP MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THIS SHOULD BE A DECENT
CAA/WEDGE SCENARIO SHAPING UP WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LINGERING
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS 30-40 INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. TEMPS WILL NOT
RISE MUCH SUNDAY MORNING/MIDDAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN SUGGESTING
THAT THINGS DRY OUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
AREA. THE ONLY OUTLIER TO THIS SCENARIO IS THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
WHICH IS FASTER IN BRINGING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIP INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/SREF AND KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY INTO MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW 30S NW TO THE LOW
40S SE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SUITE OF MODELS INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WED...BUT 
WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES DEVELOPING WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...LEADING TO 
A LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE PERIOD 
BEGINS WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN...IN BETWEEN A 
TROUGH WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH ACRS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...AND 
THE OTHER OVER THE SW CONUS. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHC POPS MON NIGHT 
ACRS NC...WILL KEEP THE PERIOD DRY THROUGH WED AFTN...AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS. HIGHS MAINLY 
IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
HINT AT A MORE SIGNIFICANT PNA PATTERN DEVELOPING TOWARDS FRI
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH THE ECMWF MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO MUCH MORE BULLISH AT BRINGING COLDER AIR IN FROM
THE NW BY FRI NIGHT/SAT BEYOND THE 7-DAY FCST. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS
RATHER ON ITS OWN REGARDING A SFC LOW MOVING ACRS THE CAROLINAS AS
EARLY AS THU...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 24 HRS SLOWER. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD-BRUSHED A 20 POP THU/THU NIGHT...AND WILL ADJUST AS
NEEDED. TEMPS REMAINING CLOSE TO AVG OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
THU/FRI...THEN POTENTIALLY MUCH COLDER INTO NEXT WEEKEND

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE.
PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AT PHF OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE GREATER AND SHOULD REMAIN FOG FREE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH AN 8-10K FT
MID-DECK DEVELOPING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD INITIALLY BE VFR/MVFR WITH IFR
EXPECTED BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS N-S ACROSS THE COAST LATER THIS 
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THIS 
BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BRIEFLY TIGHTENS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. NAM WRF BASED 
GUIDANCE REMAINS STRONGEST ON THE WIND WHILE THE NON-WRF BASED 
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE ON THE 
WIND SPEED MEETING SCA FOR THE BAY/SOUND/OCEAN IS LOW...ALTHOUGH 
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH NE FLOW TO PUSH SEAS TO 5 FT. GIVEN THAT 
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THAT IT IS STILL THIRD PERIOD NO SCA WILL BE 
RAISED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN 
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS A HINT OF A 
LOW FORMING OFF THE SC COAST AND MOVING NE OFF THE NC OUTER 
BANKS...BUT THIS IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER AMONGST NUMERICAL MODEL 
SOLUTIONS. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A 
LOCALIZED INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. 
THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THIS TIME-PERIOD GENERALLY FOLLOWED A 
NAM/SREF BLEND...WHICH DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE NEXT 
CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.

.CLIMATE...
JANUARY 2012 WAS VERY MILD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. 
HOWEVER...RIC AND ORF WERE FAR FROM RECORD VALUES. RIC HAD AN 
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 42.6 DEGREES...WHICH RANKED AS 17TH WARMEST 
ON RECORD AND WELL BELOW THE RECORD OF 49.7 DEGREES IN JANUARY 1950. 
ORF HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 47.2 DEGREES...WHICH RANKED AS THE 
14TH WARMEST ON RECORD WELL BELOW THE RECORD OF 53.3 DEGREES IN 
JANUARY 1950.

FOR THE WINTER SO FAR DEC-JAN...
AT RIC...
5 WITH AN AVG TEMPERATURE OF 44.5F 1 IS 47.5F 1931-32

AT ORF...
8 WITH AN AVG TEMPERATURE OF 48.8F 1 IS 52.4F 1931-32

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MPR/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...AKQ