000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181035
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
635 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. THE LOW MOVES
WELL OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE CAROLINAS. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENTLY...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING OFF THE SC COAST...WITH
MID/UPR LVL SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SC/SE GA. PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MADE ITS WAY NWD INTO AKQ CWA...AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SKY COVER THIS MRNG TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF SRN VA AND NE
NC. BUFR SNDGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW 650-700 MB...SO
MSBL PRECIP LOOKS UNLIKELY RADAR LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN
REALITY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR -SHRA IN NE
NC...BUT HAVE KEPT FCST DRY FOR NOW. THESE CLOUDS COMBINING W/ A
STRENGTHENING NE LOW LVL FLOW OFF THE COLD ATLC WTRS WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOLER OVER SE VA/NE NC...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 50S NC OUTER
BANKS...AND LWR/MID 60S OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR NE NC. FARTHER N AND
W...WHERE SKIES SHOULD SHOW A TREND FOR DECRSG CLOUDINESS LATER
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S
MOST SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR OVER NRN SECTIONS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LO PRES TRACKS SLOWLY NE INVOF GULF STREAM TONIGHT...MODEL TRENDS
LOOK A BIT SLOWER...SO EXPECT THE CLOUDS/MSTR TO LINGER OVER SE
ZONES THU NGT/ERLY FRI AM. HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD CVR AND MIN TEMPS
OVER SE VA/NE NC FOR THU NGT. OTRW...SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SW ON FRI...AND ALL AREAS EVEN SE ZONES SHOULD BECOME
SUNNY BY MID MRNG HRS FRI. HIGH TEMPS FRI A TOUCH WARMER THAN
TODAY...ALONG/W OF I-95 WILL GNLY BE IN THE LWR 70S W/ A FEW
AREAS FLIRTING W/ MID 70S. STILL COOLER OVER SE VA/NE NC AND THE
ERN SHORE...GNLY IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

SAT...SFC HIGH BECOMES CNTRD OFF THE SE COAST AS UPR RIDGING
ALIGNS OVER THE E COAST. WELL SEE A RETURN FLO FM THE SSW...W/ CONTD
SUNNY TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HI TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S XCPTD FOR
MUCH OF INTERIOR VA/NC THOUGH 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEING THAT MAR.APR IS THE MOST CHANGEABLE TIME OF YR ACRS THE THE
REGION...DECIDED TO MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED FCST. SLOWER TRENDS IN THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED...EVEN
THE FASTER GFS SOLN SUGGESTS MOST IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY DAYTIME
PERIOD WILL BE DRY...SO HAVE SCALED BACK TO ONLY 20 POPS IN THE
AFTN FOR ERN ZONES...AND ONLY 30 FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
ZONES AND THIS IS AFTER 20Z/LATE AFTN. RAISED TEMPS SUN A FEW
DEGREES AS WELL...MOST AREAS SHOULD GET INTO THE LWR/MID 70S
EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO OCCUR SUN NGT W/ THE INITIAL
FRONT NOT EXPECTING CONVECTIVE CHCS TO BE TOO HIGH SO HV PULLED
THUNDER WORDING FOR NOW. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY AND SLOWER TRACK
TO THE UPR SYSTEM HAVE NOW LINGERED 20-30 POPS OVER NRN AND ERN
ZONES THROUGH ALL OF MONDAY...AND IF TRENDS HOLD THE POPS MAY
NEED TO BE RAISED MORE FOR MON/MON EVENING.

EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH PRES/UPR RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH DOWNSLOPE W FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY WX
TUE/WED...AND TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR/JUST ABV NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S TUESDAY...RECOVERING
INTO THE M/U60S TO NR 70 BY WED. SEASONABLE EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S TO NR 40.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH/MID LVL CLDNS FROM SRN STREAM SYSTM OVRSPRD RGN LAST NITE.
RADAR LOOP INDCTG PCPN ECHOES HARD PRESSED TO GET ANY FRTHR N THAN
IVOF ALBEMARLE DUE TO DRY AIR AT LVR LVLS. SO XPCT VFR CNDTNS TO
CONT ACROSS FA THIS FCST PRD WITH CLOUD DECK AOA 12K FT. KECG MAY
STILL SEE SOME VIRGA THRU AM HRS.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM NOW A BIT SLOWER...WITH ANY PCPN / LWR CLOUD THREAT
NOT XPCTD UNTIL SUN NITE/MON.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRS OVR THE WTRS TDY KEEPS N-NE WNDS BLO 15 KT THRU LATE AFTRN
HRS. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-4 FT.

LOW PRS MOVG NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INCRS NE FLOW ACROSS
SRN WTRS BEGINNING THIS AFTRN AND CONTG THRU FRI. IN ORDER TO PROVIDE
A BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM FOR THE WNDS WITH THE CSTL SYSTM...CHANGED THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS BACK TO JUST A REGULAR SCA. SEAS ACROSS NRN
CSTL WTRS PROGGED TO SLOWLY FALL BLO 5 FT BY THIS EVE. SEAS STAY AOA
5 FT ACROSS SRN WTRS THRU FRI DUE TO NRLY FLOW ARND DEPARTING LOW.

LTST ECMWF CONTS TO SLOW NXT WX SYSTM. CDFRT APPRCHS FROM THE WEST
LATE SUN NITE/MON. PREFRONTAL S FLOW TURNING WNW BEHIND THE FRONT
MON AFTRN/TUE.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR