000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE EARL WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HURRICANE EARL...CURRENTLY ABT 185 MILES S OF CAPE HATTERAS...WILL
MOVE NNE TNGT THRU FRI...REMAINING WELL E OF THE NE NC...VA AND MD
CST. THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE STORM WILL BE FELT LATER TNGT THRU FRI
AFTN...PRIMARILY ALNG THE CSTL CNTIES OF NE NC...ERN VA AND LWR
MD. THESE AREAS CUD RECEIVE .50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN...STRNG OR
VRY STRNG WNDS...HIGH SEAS...AND ANYWHERE FM MINOR TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CSTL FLOODING. CHCS FOR RAIN BY FRI MORNG...WILL INCRS TO
LIKELY RIGHT ALNG THE CST...TO JUST SLGT CHC JUST E OF I95. PRTLY
CLDY TO CLDY SKY TNGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S.

THE STORM WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NE AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER FRI AFTN INTO SAT. PRTLY TO MSTLY SNY AND
VRY WARM FRI AFTN ALL AREAS...AS EARL EXITS AND DRY COLD FRNT
APPROACHES FM THE W. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO MID
90S.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRNT MOVES THRU FRI EVENG INTO SAT MORNG...WITH JUST SOME
CLDS AND AN ISLTD SHRA. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. HI
PRES WILL THEN FILTER MUCH DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION FOR SAT THRU SUN. LOTS OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S ON
SUN. LOWS SAT NGT MAINLY IN THE 50S...AND IN THE 50S TO LWR 60S
SUN NGT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WX PRTN CONTS WITH LTL CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN NXT WEEK. HIGH PRS
OVRHD MON PROGGED TO SLOWLY SLIDE E AND OFF THE COAST TUE THEN
EXPAND WEST A BIT WED. THIS KEEPS AIRMASS DRY WITH ONLY SCT CLOUD
COVER FROM TIME TO TIME.

COOLEST DAY MON WITH HIGHS IN L-M80S. H85 TMPS RISE BY MID WEEK TO
SPRT READINGS WRNG INTO THE L-M90S W OF CHES BAY BUT REMAINING IN
THE 80S AT THE COAST. LOWS MON IN THE 50S. 60S TUE/WED/THU.

BKDR CDFRNT PROGGED TO SINK S ACROSS THE RGN THU. MSTR LIMITED SO
WILL KEEP FCST DRY BUT INDCT A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE
M80S-L90S.

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE AS EARL APPROACHES FROM S/SE. MATCHED
WINDS TO OUR GRIDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-38 KTS AT ORF PHF AND ECG
STARTING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FRI MRNG. PCPN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP BUT NO PERSISTENT HEAVY PCPN IS FORECAST SO DID NOT
INTRODUCE ANY IFR INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

AS EARL BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO THE N/NE AFT 12Z FRI...CLOUD
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE W BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG
FROM THE N/NW INTO MIDDAY FRI. VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...
TRPLCL HEADLINES CONT WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL ADD A THROUGH 7
PM PRD TO ACCOUNT FOR CRNT OBS/TRENDS.

ONCE EARL EXITS TO THE NE FRI AFTRN...A CDFRNT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
FRI NITE. DATA SHNG A CAA SURGE BEHIND FROPA LATE FRI NITE INTO ERLY
SAT. GIVEN CRNT HEADLINES...WILL CAP WNDS JUST BLO SCA LVLS ATTM
THOUGH ANY SCA WITH THE CAA SURGE WUD BE A MINIMAL EVENT.

HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE RGN PROVIDING A RETURN TO DECENT BOATING
CNDTNS THRU HOLIDAY WKEND.

ANTHR CONCERN IS THE PTNTL FOR SOME MINOR CSTL FLDG IN THE CAMBRIDGE
MD AREA ON SAT. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WATER GETS TRAPPED
IN THE NRN BAY FROM EARL...THEN GETS PUSHED S TOWARDS THE ERN SHORE
AS NRNLY WNDS KICK IN BEHIND FROPA.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WHILE DETAILS REMAIN HEAVILY TRACK DEPENDENT...A ROUND OF MINOR
TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENING
TIDAL CYCLE IN ASSN WITH ONSHORE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF HURRICANE EARL.
SEE LATEST HLSAKQ FOR DETAILS ALONG COASTAL ZONES.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MDZ024-025.
     HURRICANE WATCH FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...HURRICANE WARNING FOR NCZ015017-030032-102.
VA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR VAZ091-093100.
     HURRICANE WATCH FOR VAZ095-097100.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ632-650-652-654-656.
     HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANZ650-652-654-656.
     HURRICANE WARNING FOR ANZ633-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630-631.

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ