000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1034 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SECOND AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LLVL CAD/WDG IN PLC ACRS FA...LTL IF ANY MVMNT TO FNTL BNDRY JUST
S OF FA XPCTD THRUT THIS AFTN. TEMPS NR STDY OR RISE ONLY A CPL
DEGS F FM WHR THEY ARE ATTM...FM THE M/U30S NW...U40S NE NC. CVRD
ENTIRE FA W/ 100 CLDNS/POPS. INITIAL WV OF RA MVG TO THE CST
ATTM...ANOTHER ONE SET TO ARRIVE FM THE WSW THIS AFTN. RA AMTS
AVGG 1/3 TO 1/2 IN. CONTD SLGT CHC FOR IP FAR NW SXNS OF FA.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE MINOR ADJSMNTS TO TEMPS TNGT. FNTL XPCTD TO LIFT N...BEST
PROGRESS NWD INVOF ERN/SE VA-NE NC...WHL INLAND...MVMNT LMTD. SCND
LOW MOVES N ALONG MTS AND INTO LWR GT LAKES BY LATE TONITE. KPT
POPS AOA 50 MOST PLCS...HIEST NW 1/2.

IMPRESSIVE LIFT PROGGED AHEAD OF CDFRNT WED. SO XPCTD ANTHR WDSPRD
AREA OF RAIN TO MOVE W-E ACROSS FA WED. TMPS RANGE FROM THE M40S
NW PIEDMONT TO L60S SERN CSTL AREAS. CDFRNT MOVES OFFSHORE AND
ENDS PCPN WED EVE. WITH STRNG CAA SETTING IN AND CLRG SKIES...TMPS
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVR THE REGION FOR THU...AND WE CAN EXPECT
A RETURN TO MORE CLIMO NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD OF OUR FA ON FRI...THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SAT AND
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30-40 DURING FROPA. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND
STALLS OUT ACROSS NC ON SUN AND WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS OVER S/SE
SECTIONS...CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. HIGH PRES THEN RETURNS FROM THE W
LATE SUN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL START OUT COLD UNDER NW FLOW WITH
H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -12 TO -13C BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS FRI IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...LOWS NEAR 20 TO NEAR 30. TEMPS WARM UP ON
SAT AND SUN AS SW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS IN THE LWR
30S TO MID 40S. COLDER NEXT MON BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S AND LOWS NEAR 20 TO NEAR 30.

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TDY INTO WED MORNG...AS A FRNTL BDRY AND
AREAS OF LO PRES MOVE NNE ACRS THE REGION. OFF AND ON RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENG ALL AREAS...THEN TAPER TO JUST DRIZZLE OVR
SE TAF SITES PHFORFECG LATER TNGT. COLD FRNT WILL THEN PUSH ACRS
THE REGION DURING WED WITH SHRAS IFR TO MVFR CONDS...THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR CONDS WED NGT BEHIND PASSAGE OF FRNT. GENERALLY VFR
CONDS THEN EXPECTED THU INTO THE ERLY PART OF THE WKND...AS HI PRES
BLDS IN AND ACRS THE AREA.

.MARINE...
HAVE ADJUSTED SCA HEADLINE TIMES A BIT FOR THIS FCST...STARTING THEM
A BIT LATER FOR JUST ABT ALL ZNS...AND GOING THRU LATE WED NGT ALL
AREAS. LO PRES AREAS WILL MOVE ENE ALNG FRNTL BNDRY THAT WILL LIFT
NWRD FM NC TDY THRU TNGT. COLD FRNT WILL THEN PUSH ACRS THE REGION
WED AFTN AND EVENG. HI PRES WILL BLD TWD THE AREA FM THE W LATE THU
AND ACRS THE REGION FRI INTO ERLY SAT.

.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THRU WED.
GIVEN THAT THIS RAINFALL WILL GNRLY COME IN 2 SURGES FIRST ONE
TDY...A LULL TONITE...THEN SCND WAVE WED...NO FLOOD WTCH PLANNED
ATTM.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...AKQ